EMSC Network Analysis 02/19/2022

        By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Weblink to Video:

https://youtu.be/zI_S2ttHSuE

INTERACTIVE EARTHQUAKE MAP

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1NiI0T_kXi6kzXT9z6wUCTdKFaZQ4NBRZ&usp=sharing

EMSC Events >2.5m

- all times displayed are Longitudinal Timezones, unless specified as UTC

Works Cited

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?filter=yes

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miami

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/usa/miami

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncion

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/paraguay/asuncion

https://www.tidetime.org/europe/portugal/funchal.htm

https://www.tidetime.org/africa/madagascar/andoany.htm

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/historical_declination/

https://www.heavens-above.com/PlanetSummary.aspx

Solar Report - 02/19/2022

              By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Weblink to Video:

https://youtu.be/GfkjDqYLAOc

 :Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2022 Feb 20 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity 

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare at 19/1942 UTC from

a region just beyond the NE limb near N18. This is likely the return of

old Region 2936 (N17, L=117).

Slight decay was observed in Regions 2948 (S27W12, Cso/beta) and 2946

(S08W42, Axx/alpha) while Region 2952 (S24E42, Axx/alpha) was stable.

New Region 2953 (N18E37, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.

Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption

centered near S35E54 beginning at 19/1623 UTC. An associated CME could

be seen off the SE limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 19/1853 UTC. 

We are currently waiting on further imagery, however due to its location

and trajectory, the CME is unlikely to have a geoeffective component.

.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class

(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 20-22 Feb with the return of old

Region 2936.

Energetic Particle 

.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached was at normal to moderate

levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced

from background, still lingering near 1 pfu.

.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate

levels on 20 Feb and increase to high levels on 21-22 Feb due to CH HSS

influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue

at or near background levels on 20-22 Feb.

Solar Wind 

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind speed increased over the second half of the day likely due to

the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from

approximately 320 km/s to near 455 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT

while the Bz component was between +5/-9 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a

negative solar sector.

.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under

negative polarity CH HSS influence followed by a transition into a

positive polarity CH HSS around 21 Feb. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550

km/s range are expected based on recurrence data.

Geospace 

.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...

HSS conditions are expected to cause unsettled to active levels with G1

(Minor) storm periods likely on 20 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are

expected to continue through 22 Feb as HSS conditions persist.

SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES

Works Cited

https://www.solarham.net/index.htm

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miami

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncion

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Lunar Resonant Geometries - 02/19/2022

  By: Gordon Rutherford

 Northern and Southern Hemisphere

- Planetary Spatial Separation

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Web Link to Video: 

https://youtu.be/VkRNIHFDEBE

WORKS CITED:

http://www.Solarsystemscope.com

https://www.theplanetstoday.com/

https://www.tidetime.org/europe/portugal/funchal.htm

https://www.tidetime.org/africa/madagascar/andoany.htm

https://www.timeanddate.com/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.heavens-above.com/PlanetSummary.aspx

http://astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/moonkey.html

https://www.moontracks.com/declinations.html

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi

M 6.2 - 39km W of Petrolia, CA

 By: Gordon Rutherford 

USGS EVENT

Geomagnetic Location Polarity = RED5

Driver Polarity =Neptune Negative, Sun Positive, Mars Positive

Seismic Influencers = Sun at Lunar Opposition, Neptune at 120 degrees from the Moon

Combinational Drivers = Mars and Neptune at 120 degrees

Magnetic Disposition of Drivers

- Neptune Negative

- Sun Positive

- Mars (Para-Magnetic) Positive

Magnitude Calculation

Sun + Neptune + Mars = 6.2m Event

Works Cited:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc73666231/region-info

https://engaging-data.com/antipodes-map/

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/historical_declination/

https://www.theplanetstoday.com/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

M 6.0 - PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION

 

M 6.0 - PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS

EMSC Event

Geomagnetic Location Polarity = BLUE7 Region

Driver Polarity = Uranus Neutral, Mars Positive (HIGH), Neptune Negative

Seismic Influencers = Neptune at Lunar Elongation, Mars at 150 degrees from the Moon

Combinational Drivers = Mars at 150 degrees from Uranus, Neptune at Elongation to Mars

Magnetic Disposition of Drivers

- Neptune Negative

- Mars Positive (LOW)

- Uranus Neutral

Magnitude Calculation

Neptune + Mars + Uranus

Region Swapping

1) Uranus and Mars having the EXACT same polarities, as previous region swapping activities from Uranus(Neutral)  and Saturn(Positive/LOW), being that Mars is in the Positive (LOW) Rotating Solar Magnetic Field, and Mars is a Para-magnetic Rock Body Resonator.

2) Neptune and Uranus are Region Swapping.  (I HAVE NOT YET FIGURED OUT THE NEPTUNE AND URANUS SWAPPING, BUT ASSUMING IT IS JUST THE OPPOSITE OF THE URANUS AND SATURN SWAPPING.  

///URANUS and SATURN are Neutral and Positive (LOW)

///URANUS and NEPTUNE are Neutral and Negative

Works Cited:

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1078693

https://engaging-data.com/antipodes-map/

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/historical_declination/

https://www.theplanetstoday.com/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/calculators/magcalc.shtml

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/app.html#/

M 7.3 - 112 km N of Maumere, Indonesia

 

M 7.3 - Indonesia

                 By: Gordon Rutherford 

USGS EVENT

Geomagnetic Location Polarity = GREEN+1

Driver Polarity = Sun (Neutral LOW), Venus (Positive LOW), Uranus (Neutral), Mercury (Positive LOW), Saturn (Positive LOW)

Seismic Influencers = Venus at Lunar Elongation, Sun at 120 degrees from the Moon, Uranus at Near Conjunction

Combinational Drivers = Uranus and Venus at 120 degrees,  Uranus and Saturn at Elongation, Sun and Mercury at Conjunction, Venus and Saturn at Near Conjunction

Magnetic Disposition of Drivers

- Saturn Positive (LOW)

- Venus = Positive (LOW)

- Sun Neutral (LOW)

- Mercury (Dia-Magnetic) Resonating Positive(LOW), in the Negative field

- Uranus Neutral

Magnitude Calculation

Saturn + Sun + Uranus + Venus + Mercury = 8m Event ///Venus attenuating

///Venus is a Magnetic Attenuator due to HIGH atmospheric Iron content, so this event would be knocked down to a 7m Event. (Which is within a good margin of error, since the Earthquake Registers are usually CONSERVATIVE in their magnitude assessments.)

Works Cited:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000gc2a/executive

https://engaging-data.com/antipodes-map/

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/historical_declination/

https://www.theplanetstoday.com/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction