By: Gordon Rutherford
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:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Feb 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare at 19/1942 UTC from
a region just beyond the NE limb near N18. This is likely the return of
old Region 2936 (N17, L=117).
Slight decay was observed in Regions 2948 (S27W12, Cso/beta) and 2946
(S08W42, Axx/alpha) while Region 2952 (S24E42, Axx/alpha) was stable.
New Region 2953 (N18E37, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.
Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption
centered near S35E54 beginning at 19/1623 UTC. An associated CME could
be seen off the SE limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 19/1853 UTC.
We are currently waiting on further imagery, however due to its location
and trajectory, the CME is unlikely to have a geoeffective component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 20-22 Feb with the return of old
Region 2936.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached was at normal to moderate
levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced
from background, still lingering near 1 pfu.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels on 20 Feb and increase to high levels on 21-22 Feb due to CH HSS
influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at or near background levels on 20-22 Feb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed increased over the second half of the day likely due to
the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from
approximately 320 km/s to near 455 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT
while the Bz component was between +5/-9 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
negative solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under
negative polarity CH HSS influence followed by a transition into a
positive polarity CH HSS around 21 Feb. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550
km/s range are expected based on recurrence data.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
HSS conditions are expected to cause unsettled to active levels with G1
(Minor) storm periods likely on 20 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are
expected to continue through 22 Feb as HSS conditions persist.
SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES
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