3/08/2022

EMSC Network Analysis 03/08/2022

           By:  Gordon Rutherford

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INTERACTIVE EARTHQUAKE MAP

EMSC Events >2.5m
- all times displayed are Longitudinal Timezones, unless specified as UTC

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Lunar Resonant Geometries - 03/08/2022

     By: Gordon Rutherford

 Northern and Southern Hemisphere

- Planetary Spatial Separation

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

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https://youtu.be/6sDSnF7xYDE














WORKS CITED:

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Solar Report - 03/08/2022

                 By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Weblink to Video:

https://youtu.be/MXExibtpu5g


:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2022 Mar 09 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

#

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)



Solar activity maintained low levels due to C-class flare activity.

Region 2957 (S17W57, Dso/beta) leader spots decayed further. Region 2960

(S21E07, Ehi/beta-gamma) underwent some decay, but retained weak mixed

polarities within its trailer spots. Region 2962 (N27E17, Cro/beta)

decayed further and was inactive. Region 2963 (S18W26, Bxo/beta) also

decayed quietly. Region 2964 (S27W30, Dro/beta) spread further east-west

and gained slight area. Additionally, a new area of spots rotated into

view just inside the NE limb and was assigned as NOAA/SWPC Region 2965

(N22E75, Dao/beta). This region was too foreshortened for a proper

analysis, but was the source location for occasional, low-level C-class

flares.



A filament from approximately N22W40 in the vicinity of spotless active

region 2958 (N17, L=36) disappeared around 08/0300 UTC as seen in

NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery. This DSF was associated with a CME first

observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0424 UTC. Initial analyses and

model runs suggest this CME was likely off the Sun-Earth line and is not

anticipated to be geoeffective.




.Forecast...

Low solar activity is expected 09-11 Mar, with a slight chance for

M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts).



Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, while the

greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels

09-11 March due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux

is expected to continue at background.


Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)

Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences. The

total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3-4 nT, while the Bz component

underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from near

515 km/s to ~400 km/s. The phi angle oscillated between sectors earlier

in the period, but settled predominantly into a negative orientation

after 08/0400 UTC.



.Forecast...

A return to primarily an ambient, background-like solar wind environment

is anticipated on 09 Mar and likely to continue into 10 Mar. However,

later on 10 Mar into early 11 Mar, the nearby passage or weak flanking

influences from the 06 Mar CME could disturb and enhance the IMF.

Intensity and influence confidence regarding the 06 Mar CME remains low

due to most model results suggesting primarily a weak flanking influence

or near miss just ahead and north of Earths orbit.



Geospace (24 hr Summary)

The geomagnetic field reached an early unsettled period, but was

otherwise quiet.



.Forecast...

Primarily quiet conditions are expected 09 Mar into most of 10 Mar.

Later on 10 Mar, the geomagnetic field may become disturbed and reach

unsettled to active levels in response to any nearby or flanking

influences from anticipated CME passage. Quiet to unsettled periods,

with an isolated active period, are also forecast for 11 Mar as any CME

influences would likely continue.


SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES



Works Cited
https://www.solarham.net/index.htm
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miami
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncion
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
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