by: Gordon Rutherford
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
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Solar activity was very low with only an isolated B1 flare observed at 28/1712 UTC from Region 2653 (S09W20, Hsx/alpha). The rest of the spotted regions were stable and quiet. New Region 2654 (N10E52, Axx/alpha) was numbered today.
A prominence eruption was observed at approximately 28/1530 UTC off the NW limb at North 35. We are currently waiting on coronagraph imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to an associated CME.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (29 Apr-01 May).
Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 56,297 pfu observed at 28/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate between high and very high levels on day one (29 Apr) with the possibility of returning to predominately high levels by days two and three (30 Apr-01 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
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Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels over the period with solar wind speeds in the 370-480 km/s range. Total field was steady near 5 nT with the Bz component between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector.
NOTE: From 28/1727-1913 UTC, solar wind speed, temperature, and density registered incorrect readings.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one and through the majority of day two (29-30 Apr). By late on day two, a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) into a positive (away) sector is expected followed by weak CH HSS influence from a positive polarity CHHSS. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist into day three (01 May).
Geospace (24 hr Summary)
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The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 Apr). By late on day two and continuing into day three (30 Apr-01 May), an SSBC followed by a possible weak positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods on 01 May.
