:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Nov 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center #
Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
------------------------------ Solar activity continued at very low levels with no spotted regions observed on the visible disk during the period. A CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery departing the northeast quadrant of the sun at approximately 09/0115 UTC. Due to the location of the source region, there will likely be no Earth-directed component, but a WSA/Enlil model run has been submitted as a precaution. No other CMEs were observed in available imagery.
Forecast Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (09-11 Nov). Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
---------------------------------- The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak level of 2098 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. Forecast The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (09 Nov) with normal to moderate levels likely on days two and three (10-11 Nov) in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period. Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
-------------------------- Solar wind parameters were at background levels for the first several hours of the period. Total field strength was steady near 4 nT, Bz was predominately positive near 2 nT, and the solar wind speeds were below 300 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative sector. At 09/0543 UTC, the solar environment became slightly enhanced following the likely weak arrival of the anticipated asymmetric, partial halo CME from 5 Nov. Wind speeds increased from near 280 km/s to over 325 km/s, while the total field simultaneously increased from 4 nT to 8 nT, eventually reaching a peak of nearly 10 nT. The Bz component was slow to react, but eventually saw southward deviations to near -7 nT. The phi angle did make a slow transition throughout the period as well, slowly turning from the negative sector to end the period in a positive orientation. Forecast Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on day one (09 Nov) due to the weak effects of a CME from 05 Nov. Day two (10 Nov) should return toward background conditions as CME effects subside. Day three (11 Nov) is expected to see the onset of CH HSS effects from a recurrent feature. Geospace (24 hr Summary)
------------------------ The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime, despite the apparent arrival of the anticipated CME. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active levels possible on day one (09 Nov) due to the arrival of the 05 Nov CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (10 Nov) as the CME effects subside. Quiet to active conditions are forecast on day three (11 Nov) with the onset of CH HSS effects from a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.
