By: Gordon Rutherford
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:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Mar 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity maintained low levels due to C-class flare activity.
Region 2957 (S17W57, Dso/beta) leader spots decayed further. Region 2960
(S21E07, Ehi/beta-gamma) underwent some decay, but retained weak mixed
polarities within its trailer spots. Region 2962 (N27E17, Cro/beta)
decayed further and was inactive. Region 2963 (S18W26, Bxo/beta) also
decayed quietly. Region 2964 (S27W30, Dro/beta) spread further east-west
and gained slight area. Additionally, a new area of spots rotated into
view just inside the NE limb and was assigned as NOAA/SWPC Region 2965
(N22E75, Dao/beta). This region was too foreshortened for a proper
analysis, but was the source location for occasional, low-level C-class
flares.
A filament from approximately N22W40 in the vicinity of spotless active
region 2958 (N17, L=36) disappeared around 08/0300 UTC as seen in
NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery. This DSF was associated with a CME first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0424 UTC. Initial analyses and
model runs suggest this CME was likely off the Sun-Earth line and is not
anticipated to be geoeffective.
.Forecast...
Low solar activity is expected 09-11 Mar, with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts).
Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
09-11 March due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences. The
total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3-4 nT, while the Bz component
underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from near
515 km/s to ~400 km/s. The phi angle oscillated between sectors earlier
in the period, but settled predominantly into a negative orientation
after 08/0400 UTC.
.Forecast...
A return to primarily an ambient, background-like solar wind environment
is anticipated on 09 Mar and likely to continue into 10 Mar. However,
later on 10 Mar into early 11 Mar, the nearby passage or weak flanking
influences from the 06 Mar CME could disturb and enhance the IMF.
Intensity and influence confidence regarding the 06 Mar CME remains low
due to most model results suggesting primarily a weak flanking influence
or near miss just ahead and north of Earths orbit.
Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field reached an early unsettled period, but was
otherwise quiet.
.Forecast...
Primarily quiet conditions are expected 09 Mar into most of 10 Mar.
Later on 10 Mar, the geomagnetic field may become disturbed and reach
unsettled to active levels in response to any nearby or flanking
influences from anticipated CME passage. Quiet to unsettled periods,
with an isolated active period, are also forecast for 11 Mar as any CME
influences would likely continue.
SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES
Works Citedhttps://www.solarham.net/index.htmhttps://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miamihttps://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-fluxhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-fluxhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-windhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predictionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometerhttps://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
