2/22/2022

Lunar Report - 02/22/2022

   By: Gordon Rutherford

  Tracking Sun and Moon Median

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February 23, 2022
Tomorrow the Moon will be in a Third Quarter phase. Sometimes called a Last Quarter Moon, this phase occurs roughly 3 weeks after the New Moon when the Moon is three quarter of the way through it’s orbit around the earth. If you live in the northern hemisphere the Moons left side will be illuminated and the right side will be dark. For those of you in the southern hemisphere it will be the opposite with the right side illuminated. On the day of the Third Quarter phase the Moon will rise around midnight on the eastern horizon and set in the west around noon the next day. In the days following the Third Quarter Phase the Moon’s illumination will decrees each day until the New Moon.



Tomorrow's Last Quarter Phase
The Last Quarter on February 23 has an illumination of 55%. This is the percentage of the Moon illuminated by the Sun. The illumination is constantly changing and can vary up to 10% a day. On February 23 the Moon is 21.68 days old. This refers to how many days it has been since the last New Moon. It takes 29.53 days for the Moon to orbit the Earth and go through the lunar cycle of all 8 Moon phases.


Moon before apogee (3 Days)
12 days after point of apogee on 11 February 2022 at 02:39 in ♊ Gemini. The lunar orbit is getting narrow, while the Moon is moving towards the Earth. It will keep this direction over the next 3 days, until the Moon reaches the point of next perigee on 26 February 2022 at 22:18 in ♑ Capricorn.


Moon before southern standstill (3 Days)
10 days since the previous standstill on 12 February 2022 at 16:45 in ♋ Cancer when the Moon has reached North declination of ∠26.444°, the lunar orbit is extending southward over the next 2 days to face maximum declination of ∠-26.559° at the point of next southern standstill on 26 February 2022 at 06:37 in ♑ Capricorn.





Neap tide
There is low ocean tide today. Sun and Moon gravitational forces are not aligned, but meet at big angle, so their combined tidal force is weak.



WORKS CITED
https://www.moongiant.com/phase/today/
https://lunaf.com/lunar-calendar/
https://www.calendar-365.com/moon/current-moon-phase.html
https://www.moontracks.com/declinations.html
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/usa/miami
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/paraguay/asuncion
https://www.tidetime.org/north-america/united-states/west-palm-beach.htm
https://www.tidetime.org/africa/madagascar/andoany.htm
https://www.facebook.com/groups/LunarCycleData/





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Solar Report - 02/22/2022

               By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Weblink to Video:

https://youtu.be/xm20S0wePWI



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2022 Feb 23 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

#

Solar Activity.24 hr Summary...



Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2953 (N17W05, Cro/beta)

maintained rudimentary penumbra in its leading spots. Regions 2954

(N18E45, Hsx/alpha) and 2955 (N14E56, Hsx/alpha) were stable and

inactive.


No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.


.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for C-class

flares through 25 Feb.



Energetic Particle.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels

and the 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels.




.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels by

23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near

background levels for the next three days.


Solar Wind.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters showed waning influence from a positive polarity

CH HSS. Total field strength was steady between 6-8 nT. Bz was mostly

negative the first third of the day, and on occasion, exceeded -5 nT.

Wind speeds hovered around 550 km/s the first half of the day, then

decreased nearer to 470 km/s through the end of the day. Phi was mostly

positive.



.Forecast...

CH HSS influence is likely to carry over into the first half of 23 Feb.

Thereafter, a return to nominal conditions is expected.



Geospace.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field briefly reached G1 (Minor) storm levels.



.Forecast...

Unsettled levels are possible on 23 Feb as CH HSS activity continues to

linger. Mostly quiet levels are then expected through 25 Feb.


SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES




Works Cited

https://www.solarham.net/index.htm
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miami
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncion
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/


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2/19/2022

EMSC Network Analysis 02/19/2022

        By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

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INTERACTIVE EARTHQUAKE MAP


EMSC Events >2.5m
- all times displayed are Longitudinal Timezones, unless specified as UTC

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Solar Report - 02/19/2022

              By:  Gordon Rutherford

Cellphone Users and some Tablets, to see the videos posted on this page, you have to choose "Desktop Site" in your browser settings, otherwise even the Image Previews of videos WILL NOT BE DISPLAYED.  NOTE:  the data shared here are screenshots of data analytical tools developed, by me, that MUST BE VIEWED as "Desktop Site" or you will not be able to zoom in and see the data.

Weblink to Video:

https://youtu.be/GfkjDqYLAOc


 :Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2022 Feb 20 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center


Solar Activity 



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare at 19/1942 UTC from

a region just beyond the NE limb near N18. This is likely the return of

old Region 2936 (N17, L=117).


Slight decay was observed in Regions 2948 (S27W12, Cso/beta) and 2946

(S08W42, Axx/alpha) while Region 2952 (S24E42, Axx/alpha) was stable.

New Region 2953 (N18E37, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.


Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption

centered near S35E54 beginning at 19/1623 UTC. An associated CME could

be seen off the SE limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 19/1853 UTC. 

We are currently waiting on further imagery, however due to its location

and trajectory, the CME is unlikely to have a geoeffective component.


.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class

(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 20-22 Feb with the return of old

Region 2936.




Energetic Particle 

.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached was at normal to moderate

levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced

from background, still lingering near 1 pfu.




.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate

levels on 20 Feb and increase to high levels on 21-22 Feb due to CH HSS

influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue

at or near background levels on 20-22 Feb.


Solar Wind 

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind speed increased over the second half of the day likely due to

the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from

approximately 320 km/s to near 455 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT

while the Bz component was between +5/-9 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a

negative solar sector.





.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under

negative polarity CH HSS influence followed by a transition into a

positive polarity CH HSS around 21 Feb. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550

km/s range are expected based on recurrence data.


Geospace 

.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.


.Forecast...

HSS conditions are expected to cause unsettled to active levels with G1

(Minor) storm periods likely on 20 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are

expected to continue through 22 Feb as HSS conditions persist.


SOLAR CYCLE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRIES



Works Cited
https://www.solarham.net/index.htm
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/miami
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/paraguay/asuncion
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

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