By: Gordon Rutherford
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jul 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Wind (24 hr Summary) Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed steadily increased from initial values near 575 km/s to peak speeds averaging near 670 km/s, before settling near 620 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values stayed mostly between 5 to 11 nT. The Bz component was variable, reaching a maximum southward deviation of -3 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.
Forecast Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next two days (11-12 Jul) under continued CH HSS influence. A gradual decrease is expected to begin on day three (13 Jul).
Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was at very low levels this period as Region 2665 (S06E05,Ekc/beta-gamma) only managed low-level B-class activity. The region showed separation and decreased magnetic complexity during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (11-13 Jul).
Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high flux levels on days one through three (11-13 Jul) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11-12 Jul) as CH HSS influence prevails. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 Jul) as CH influence begins to subside.
