Solar Report - July 13th, 2017

By: Gordon Rutherford

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jul 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began near 510 km/s early and gradually decreased to speeds near 400 km/s. Total field strength values varied from 1 nT to 4 nT. The Bz component was variable, reaching a maximum southward deviation of -3 nT. The phi angle was in a mostly positive solar orientation throughout most of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease on day one (13 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides. An enhancement is anticipated on day two (14 Jul) and into day three (15 Jul) due to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was at very low levels this period as Region 2665 (S06W24, Ehi/beta) continued to show separation and decreased magnetic complexity. New Region 2666 (N13W13, Cro/beta remained inactive. A large CME was observed off the West limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 13/1300 UTC. Further analysis and WSA/Enlil modelling will be completed to determine if the event has an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15 Jul).

Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high flux levels on days one through three (13-15 Jul) following the enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels this period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Jul) as CH influence continues to wane. Quiet to active conditions are expected on days two and three (14-15 Jul) due to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

M 5.8 - 176km ESE of Hoemul-li, North Korea

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 5.8 - 176km ESE of Hoemul-li, North Korea
UTC Time = 2017-07-12 19:48:07
Magnitude = 5.8m
Location =  40.857°N   131.634°E 
Depth = 537.6 km

Drivers:
Neptune at Lunar Conjunction 

Combinational Drivers:
- Neptune and Jupiter at Geocentric Conjunction

Epicenter Skyview

Antipodal Locations

Antipodal Skyview

NASA JPL Data

M 4.7 - 53km ESE of Hongtu, China

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 4.7 - 53km ESE of Hongtu, China
2017-07-12 10:42:19 UTC 
Magnitude = 4.7m
Location = 37.749°N   101.472°E 
Depth = 10.0 km

Drivers:
Jupiter at 120 Degrees from the Moon
(at Epicenter Median)

Combinational Drivers:
- Jupiter and Neptune at Geocentric Opposition
- Neptune at Lunar Conjunction

Epicenter Skyview

Antipodal Locations

Antipodal Skyview

NASA JPL Data

M 5.5 - 73km W of Constitucion, Chile

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 5.5 - 73km W of Constitucion, Chile
UTC Time = 2017-07-12 09:08:17
Magnitude = 5.5m
Location =  35.388°S   73.227°W 
Depth =  10.0 km

Drivers:
Neptune at Lunar Conjunction

Combinational Drivers:
- Neptune and Jupiter at Geocentric Opposition

Epicenter Skyview

Antipodal Locations

Antipodal Skyview

NASA JPLD Data

M 6.6 - 198km NW of Auckland Island, New Zealand

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 6.6 - 198km NW of Auckland Island, New Zealand
UTC Time = 2017-07-11 07:00:01
Magnitude = 6.6m
Location = 49.546°S   164.031°E 
Depth = 10.0 km

Drivers:
Jupiter at Median, during Jupiter at 120 degrees from the Moon

Solar Magnetic Field:
- Moon in the Positive


NASA JPL Data

Epicenter Skyview

Antipodal Locations

Antipodal Skyview

Jovian Magnetic Axial Tilts

Celestial Geometries - July 11th, 2017

By:  Gordon Rutherford

Lunar Geometries
Moon at 150 Degrees of the Sun
Mercury at Lunar Opposition
Jupiter at Lunar 120 Degrees

Combinational Geometries

- Sun and Mars at Geocentric Conjunction
** Jupiter and Neptune near 150 degrees
** Jupiter and Uranus near 150 degrees

Rotating Solar Magnetic Field

- Earth/Moon in the Positive

- Mercury (Dia-Magnetic) in the Negative

- Mars Neutral to Positive

NASA JPL Data - Today

NASA JPL Data - FORECASTED

Rotating Solar Wind - FORECASTED

Lunar Report - July 11th, 2017

By:  Gordon Rutherford

Moon distance to earth:
244,552 miles
Age moon:
17.1 days
Moon phase:
Size of moon decreases
Percentage visible:
94%

TODAY - TUESDAY, JULY 11, 2017

The Moon today is in a Waning Gibbous Phase. This is the first phase after the Full Moon occurs. It lasts roughly 7 days with the Moon’s illumination growing smaller each day until the Moon becomes a Last Quarter Moon with a illumination of 50%. The average Moon rise for this phase is between 9am and Midnight depending on the age of the phase. The moon rises later and later each night setting after sunrise in the morning. During this phase the Moon can also be seen in the early morning daylight hours on the western horizon.

Upcoming main Moon phases

Last Quarter on 16 July 2017 at 19:26

New Moon on 23 July 2017 at 09:46

First Quarter on 30 July 2017 at 15:23

Full Moon on 7 August 2017 at 18:11

Moderate tide

There is medium ocean tide today. Sun and Moon gravitational forces are not aligned, but meet at very acute angle, so their combined tidal force is moderate.

Low 05:07am

(0.17m)

High 11:01am

(2.44m)

Low 05:16pm

(-0.11m)

High 11:33pm

(2.63m)

Solar Report - July 11, 2017

By:  Gordon Rutherford

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jul 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed steadily increased from initial values near 575 km/s to peak speeds averaging near 670 km/s, before settling near 620 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values stayed mostly between 5 to 11 nT. The Bz component was variable,
reaching a maximum southward deviation of -3 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next two days (11-12 Jul) under continued CH HSS influence. A gradual decrease is expected to begin on day three (13 Jul).

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was at very low levels this period as Region 2665 (S06E05,Ekc/beta-gamma) only managed low-level B-class activity. The region showed separation and decreased magnetic complexity during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (11-13 Jul).

Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high flux levels on days one through three (11-13 Jul) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11-12 Jul) as CH HSS influence prevails. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 Jul) as CH influence begins to subside.

M 6.5 - 3km NNE of Masarayao, Philippines

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 6.5 - 3km NNE of Masarayao, Philippines
UTC Time = 2017-07-06 08:03:57
Magnitude = 6.5m
Location = 11.114°N   124.633°E 
Depth = 6.5 km

Drivers:
Sun at 150 degrees from the Moon

Combinational Drivers:
- Saturn at Lunar Conjunction
- Sun, Mercury, and Mars at Geocentric Conjunction

Solar Magnetic Field:
- Earth/Moon (Para-Magnetic) Neutral
- Mars (Para-Magnetic) Negative
- Mercury (Dia-Magnetic) Neutral to Positive


Epicenter Skyview

NASA JPL Data

Rotating Solar Magnetic Field

Earth/Moon Magnetic Field

M 5.8 - 11km SSE of Lincoln, Montana

By:  Gordon Rutherford

M 5.8 - 11km SSE of Lincoln, Montana
UTC Time = 2017-07-06 06:30:17
Magnitude = 5.8m
Location = 46.871°N   112.603°W 
Depth = 13.6 km

Drivers:
Neptune Rise, Moon Median, while Neptune @ Western Lunar Elongation

Combinational Drivers:
- Saturn at Lunar Conjunction
- Jupiter and Neptune at Geocentric Opposition

Solar Magnetic Field
- Earth/Moon in the Neutral to Negative

Epicenter Skyview

Antipodal Locations

Antipodal Skyview

NASA JPL Data