Solar Report - 10/24/2019

By: Gordon Rutherford

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Oct 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center #

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters were at background levels until ~24/0600 UTC. Just after 24/0600 UTC, a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, began interacting with Earths magnetosphere, causing enhancements in the solar wind environment. At ~24/1030 UTC, solar wind speeds increased to near 500 km/s, total field reached 14 nT, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -12 nT. Phi remained mostly negative until just after 24/1100 UTC, when it rotated into a mostly positive
orientation. Wind speeds did eventually reach over 600 km/s late in the period as CH HSS effects increased.

Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 25 Oct due to persistent CH HSS influences. CH HSS effects are projected to begin tapering off on 26-27 Oct as the CH HSS transits out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to CIR/CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods on 25 Oct. Conditions should begin to taper off on 26-27 Oct to active conditions or less, as the CH begins rotating away from a geoeffective position.

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 25-27 Oct.

Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase from normal to high levels on 25 Oct as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Electron flux levels are expected to remain at
high levels on 26-27 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.