:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Jul 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor). New Region 2838
(N24W81, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M2/Sf flare observed at 03/0717 UTC. The region also produced a C5/Sf flare at 03/0231 UTC and a C1/Sf flare at 03/0508 UTC. The largest region on the disk, Region 2835
(S18W36, Dkc/beta-gamma) indicated slight increase in area and spot
count, but was quiet. Both Regions 2836 (S25W43, Axx/alpha) and 2837
(N17E08, Bxo/beta) were quiet and stable.
Other activity included an eruptive prominence observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery off the NW limb beginning at about 02/1401 UTC. An associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/1536 UTC. Initial analysis, with limited coronagraph imagery, and subsequent model output suggests a miss to the west of Earths trajectory. However, further analysis will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, on 03-04 Jul, decreasing to a
slight chance on 05 Jul. This is due to the magnetic complexity of
Region 2835 and recent activity from Region 2838.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 03-05 Jul, while the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Solar wind
speed ranged from 423-510 km/s while the total field was between 3-7 nT.
Phi indicated SSBC, from positive to negative, at 02/1418 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the period
due to a potential glancing blow from the 29 Jun CME on 03-04 Jul as
well as a weak CH HSS on 05 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Unsettled, with possible active conditions, are expected on 03 Jul due
to a potential glancing blow from the 29 Jun CME. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected to continue through 04-05 Jul due to persistent CME
influence followed by the arrival of a CH HSS on 05 Jul.
