Solar Report - 09/03/2017

By: Gordon Rutherford

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Sep 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters indicated continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 650 km/s and gradually declined to end the period near 500 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 5 nT while the Bz component did not drop below -3 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast
The solar wind environment is expected to remained enhanced for the next three days (03-05 Sep) due to ongoing, but slowly waning, CH HSS effects.

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was a C7 flare observed at 02/1541 UTC from around the W limb. Associated with the flare was a Type II radio burst (estimated speed 976 km/s) and a CME signature which is not expected to be Earth-directed. Region 2674 (N14E18, Fhc/beta-gamma) displayed minor growth in its intermediate spots and produced a single low level C-class flare during the period. The remaining numbered sunspots were absent of flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (03-05 Sep).

Energetic Particles (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 7,573 pfu observed at 02/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on days one through three (03-05 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

X-Ray Flux (Last 3 days)

Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated period of active conditions, on day one (03 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (04-05 Sep) as influence from the CH HSS wanes.