Solar Report - 08/29/2017

By:  Gordon Rutherford

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters from the ACE spacecraft reflected a near background solar wind environment. The solar wind was estimated to be between 325-375 km/s on average. Total field strength was marginally elevated and ranged between 6 and 8 nT. Bz was generally southward through most of the day with a maximum deflection of -8 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast
The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced late on day two (30 Aug) as a SSBC is anticipated ahead of a CIR. Solar wind speeds are expected to become elevated on day three (31 Aug) while under the influence of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS and possible glancing blow from the 28 Aug CME.

Solar Activity  (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2672 (N08W42, Hsx/alpha) continued to show signs of steady decay, losing its trailer spots. Region 2673 (S08E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered and was stable during the period. Another Region near N08E82 is emerging around the East limb and produced most of the activity. Including the largest flare of the period, a C2 at 29/0300 UTC.

A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery off the west limb at approximately 28/1930 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined that a glancing blow is possible late on 1 Sept.

Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for M-flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (29-31 Aug).

Energetic Particles (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next two days (29-30 Aug), increasing to moderate to high levels by day three (31 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Geospace  (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels on days one and two (29-30 Aug). Isolated active levels are
anticipated late on day two (30 Aug) in response to a SSBC and CIR. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely by day three (31 Aug) as Earth interfaces with a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS and possible glancing blow from the 18 Aug CME.