Solar Report - 10/26/2019

By: Gordon Rutherford

Sunrise  7:25 am
Median  13:04 am
Sunset   18:43 pm

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Oct 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center#

Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds remained elevated at around 575-675 km/s with a peak speed of 695 km/s observed at 26/1623 UTC. The Bz component became sustained southward to -9 nT after 26/0600 UTC. Phi remained in a predominately positive orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 27-28 Oct due to continued CH HSS influence. An additional enhancement is possible late on 29 Oct due to weak CME effects.

Geospace (24 hr Summary)
The geomagnetic field reached isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels this period in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions, on 27 Oct. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected on 28 Dec due to continued, but slowly waning, CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. Isolated active intervals are possible late on 29 Oct due to weak CME effects.

Energetic Particles (24 hr Summary)
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 20,986 pfu observed at 26/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 27-29 Oct, with very high flux levels likely on 27-28 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. Analysis
continues for a potential Earth-directed, slow-moving CME that lifted off the W limb, first visible in STEREO-A COR2 at 25/0654 UTC. No additional Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery this period.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 27-29 Oct.

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