Solar Report - 02/28/2017

by:  Gordon Rutherford

Solar Report - 02/28/2017
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 01 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce,
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity [24 hr Summary]
Solar activity was very low. There were three spotted regions on the visible disk. Region 2640 (N08W04, Axx/alpha) lost its trailing spots, Region 2638 (N16W43, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and mostly unchanged in appearance, and Region 2641 (N15E26, Cao/beta) developed additional leading spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (01-03 Mar).

Energetic Particle [24 hr Summary]
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next two days (01-02 Mar), with a chance of reaching high levels on day two (02 Mar), due to CH HSS influences. By day three (03 Mar) moderate to high levels are likely due to ongoing CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind [24 hr Summary]
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels before becoming disturbed late in the period with the passage of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity, polar-connected CH HSS. Total field strength was between 6 and 9 nT while the Bz component oscillated between +2 and -5 nT. Solar wind began the period around 375 km/s and gradually increased to over 400 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on day one (01 Mar) due to a negative polarity, polar-connected, CH HSS. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced into days two and three (02-03 Mar) due to the ongoing effects of the CH HSS. Solar wind speeds ranging from 600 - 700 km/s are anticipated based on earlier observations from STEREO-A.

Geospace [24 hr Summary]
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming likely, on days one and two (01-02 Mar) as a negative polarity, CH HSS becomes geoffective. Mainly unsettled to active levels are anticipated on day three (03 Mar) as the CH HSS begins to subside.